Easily the biggest new release week in a long, long time. Fun fact, only twice have two new albums ever sold more than 700,000 in one week—last year with Kanye, and in 1991 with Use Your Illusion I and II.

GN'R has one extra day, but will it suffer the Twilight effect—i.e. fans blowing up the first day numbers before a steady, steep decline? They weren't exactly flying off the shelves when I was in a Best Buy this weekend. Each Best Buy in the US has to sell almost 900 copies for this thing to get to a million. There's also this funny tidbit: "When the doors of one downtown New York City store opened at 9 a.m., there were two customers waiting outside."

Kanye is #1 on iTunes, above GN'R, and it's available in more places. But is it too un-hip-hop?

I'm going for Kanye to edge out GN'R, mostly out of hope.

Place your bets.

Kanye: .91 M
GN'R: .9 M
The Killers: .4 M

Though I've been a little harsh (though, mostly to Monty) in the GNR thread, I think they've got it this week, but not by a lot:


GNR: .95 m
Kanye: .85 m
Killers: .25 m

I bought my copy of Democracy on Sunday at Best Buy(Bolingbrook/Naperville line) and there was no one there at all. Really quite sad for Best Buy on a Sunday at 1 PM in November.

The economy is just decimating all the eateries and non-essential stores near my house.

I've been wondering the same thing lately. I think all of these albums will do great this week, but I'm not quite sure who will come out on top. I will probably have to agree with Very Metal, though. Young, teenage bitches (i.e. girls who actually buy the albums) will go ape shit over Kanye. It will be boner time for them. I think with his numerous music videos (not to mention that everyone knows him) he will succeed. Has the new GNR been getting any radio airplay? I don't think nearly as much as 808's. And, of course, The Killers will do good, but not good enough.

808's - 900,000 +

Chinese - 700,000 +

Day and Age - 500,000 +

Uh, Carter III sold over a million in the first week, as did 50's The Massacre in 2005.

Unless you mean two albums that BOTH sold over 700,000 in the same week, but last year you only provided Kanye and not the other album (and as I recall, Curtis did not go above the 700k mark that week).

But in terms of your actual question, it's hard to say what the reaction to Kanye's album will be. Either way, I don't think GNR will be #1, especially with the disappointing first day sales reports that are starting to surface. It will either be Kanye or Killers. I want to say Killers but then who knows.

I heard Chinese Democracy twice tonight while switching through stations on my ride home.

It's getting constant play on the local classic rock station, just like the new AC/DC track was. Not sure about modern rock radio since I never, ever go near that.

It's possible. I think Axl would have been better off with Wal Mart. People have to buy food. There is literally no one at my local Best Buy this month. There are more workers in the store than shoppers.

Yep I think that's the major problem. I've no doubt that if it weren't for that deal Axl would have a #1, ESPECIALLY if he decided to go with Wal-Mart. Best Buy doesn't appear to be doing very well, and they have been apparently hiding their GNR displays in out of the way places, being less than obvious about it... which is pretty stupid. Here in Canada, there's no such deal though so all the shops have it.. which makes it all the easier for me to not buy it.

Well shit, I don't listen to the radio that often. I just assumed, I guess.

We expecting sales from the Killers? Seem like seriously distant third here.

I said TWO new albums selling over 700,000 in their first week. As in: on the same week. It has only happened twice since they began Soundscan about 18 years ago.

The Killers are a distant third, but you never know. The last one sold around 400,000 in the first week? All three have the advantage of an extra day of sales, as well as Thanksgiving weekend.

Then again, the economy shit the bed.

If the killers move more than 300k their first week, I'll be very surprised. I would not be surprised at a real low ball number, though... like 90,000 low.

Will the people who bought Nickelback this week go back for GnR? Will they see that they're both out and buy them at the same time, or find themselves in a harrowing butt rock Sophie's Choice nighmare where they can afford only one?

How much overlap between Kanye and Beyonce and will they affect each others' sales?

Hmmm...my estimate is as follows...

GnR - 600k
Kanye - 550k
Killers - 150k

CHINESE DEMOCRACY IS TAKIN THIS BABY!!

GnR - 900,000
Kanye - 700,000
Killers - 80,000

Maybe I misjudged the popularity of the Killers...? I mean I'm not too familiar with how Sam's Town did but they seem massively popular, at least here...

a better question might be which record has more illegal downloads already... i gotta think G n R.

First album went triple platinum in the States. Second went platinum.

I just think they'll be an afterthought in the GnR/Kanye market.

there is a silent america that is wistful enough for an early 90's america to go out and buy a ridiculous number of albums. in like physical form and everything. but there's still no way that i don't see kanye taking this. not massive numbers, but pushing 800,000. large enough that people blame the economy and not kanye. 808's headed for full cultural acceptance.

why i do have to state everything i say tonight in the form of a prediction? i am stoned as anything.

GnR - 600,000
Kanye - 350,000
Killers - 300,000

I don't know, but as of right now Kanye is trailing the Killers on Amazon (link). Spot 16 vs 5. I would imagine that Amazon sales are fairly representative of most sales, but what the fuck is going on with Enya at 1? Really?

GnR will break 1 million mark this week....(assuming pre-orders count).

killers may get a boost from the fact that they are selling the record for 4 beans...

I don't know, I just don't see every single Best Buy in the land selling 100 GN'R CDs a day. I wonder if they even shipped that much?

Amazon is goofy, mostly used by adults. I'd trust iTunes a little more, which breaks down like this right now:

1. Kanye
2. Coldplay
3. Killers
4. GN'R

we forgot about Coldplay. could be the wildcard.

Is Thanksgiving week usually a good one for sales?

Kanye - 700k
GnR - 600k
Killers - 250k

Kanye 750
GNR 650
Killers 200

Those all might be on the high side. Lil Wayne has the best selling album of the year at 2.6 million. In the 90s that wouldn't even be in the top 20. You will be surprised at how little the American consumer actually cares about Chinese Democracy beyond the free Dr Pepper coupon.

yeah, the friday after Thanksgiving is the biggest retail shopping day of the year. it's when all the big box stores have their blowout sales. that whole weekend is mostly set aside for americans doing xmas shopping. it'll be closely watched this year as an economic indicator. companies' entire years are made or lost in 3 days.

whos' buying kanye? i figured thats a record most people would rip a free download of, and eventually delete.

teenagers, housewives, college kids, yuppies, hip-hop fans...

Didn't realise this applied for the music industry as well. Guess if you want something to do well in EOY's you sacrifice that to get something out that week.

Killers will be #1 here.

damn kids and that rap music....

Seems to me it's a question of audience. Once, G'n'R's following cut across demographics, whn they had videos and singles and a constant presence on Mtv. Now, Kanye surely occupies that niche, where G'n'R is legendary, but whose hardcore following is the same sort of people who are buying AC/DC dog collars at Wal Mart (yes, they really have a full line of AC/DC pet merch.) Without a video or single building buzz weeks ahead of time, it's hard to see how G'n'R has the kind of mass US audience who'll run out and blow up the charts buying Chinese Democracy.

Kanye in a walk.

Many of the Wal-Mart stores have already taken down the AC/DC special promo sections, and that record has been out for a month.

That also sold 1.3 million, which puts it in the top 10 for the year. I'd think GnR have a legit shot at matching that, or breaking it.

I don't see that happening for two reasons: AC/DC are bigger, and better. "Rock & Roll Train" was all over NFL/College football broadcasts for weeks before the album release. And, it's a great song. Also, there are over twice as many Wal Marts as Best Buys in the U.S. And more people shop at WMs. I don't see a lot of big ticket electronics items flying off the shelf these days, but people always need toilet paper and diapers.

There's also this to chew on:

However, on Tuesday (November 25), Geffen revised its statement, saying instead that the first-week sales data it will be releasing to SoundScan for Chinese Democracy will be based on sales tallied Sunday through Saturday, whereas West's will be based on sales tallied Monday through Sunday — which means that both albums' debuts will be based on seven days of sales.

Typically, albums are released in the U.S. on Tuesdays, and SoundScan tracks weekly sales data from Monday through Sunday, meaning that most albums' debut spots on the chart are based on six sales days. But unlike many other retail outlets, Best Buy reports sales figures that were recorded between Sunday and Saturday...

This development comes on the heels of a report released Monday by "Hits Daily Double," which claims Chinese Democracy is on pace to scan anywhere between 300,000 and 500,000 copies that figure also includes a reported 25,000 iTunes downloads.

also:

In case you were wondering how the Week Of Big Albums Race is shaping up over in England, first-day sales totals have the Killers ahead of Axl and Co., 70,764 copies to 50,791. Some weirdo from X Factor named Rhydian is holding on to third; a bunch of priests are in the No. 4 slot; and Kanye West's 808s & Heartbreak is well behind in fifth (16,530).

GNR
Kanye
Killers

The GNR I have heard so far was really good.

Interesting...not entirely sure that's reflective of what will happen here.

Who knows, maybe the Killers will pull an upset.

Kanye
GNR
Killers

I wouldn't be surprised to see really, really low numbers. The economy is just so fucking bad, and people are freaking out over it...

Now if Obama would make his approval of Kanye more well-known, that might give 'Ye a bump...

Killers definitely takes the 3 spot. 1 spot will be close between Kanye and GNR, but the edge goes to GNR. When do numbers come in anyway?

Hits Daily Double has the following estimates for this week:

Kanye: 450-500k
GnR: 300k
Ludacris: 225k
Killers: 200k

http://www.hitsdailydouble.com/news/newsPage.cgi?news07362

Wonder how these will pan out. All of them have qualifiers like "more or less," "around," etc, so I'm guessing Black Friday will be a wild card, depending on how many people actually go shopping.

i seriously lol at people thinking fucking Guns n' Roses can outsell Kanye West in 2008. the economic conditions + lack of Kanye vs. 50 drama will keep sales below Graduation level, but 500-600,000 is likely

Better Question?: Will Chinese Democracy beat Sasha Fierce?

This would be hilarious:

Kanye
Beyonce
Ludacris
Nickelback
GNR

Perhaps then Monty would give in and just admit his destiny: Nickelback fandom.

well seeing that teens will probably download kanyes cd for free and older people will actually buy a gnr cd...i dont find it very lol.

very good point.

Aren't the High School Musical soundtracks the best selling discs of the last couple years? Also, Taylor Swift, Twilight, Jonas Brothers...

I think the past has shown people don't buy Kanye records.

Univer$al

This is bizarrely wrong. Look at Graduation. Despite the fact that young people apparently don't buy albums anymore, the best selling albums of the past few years are rap CDs. Wayne, Kanye, 50... plus other youth-oriented stuff like High School Musical and disney crap.